DONORNOMICS: My New Term for the Ukrainian Economy
A new type of economy has taken shape in Ukraine — and the most appropriate term for it is Donornomics. In textbooks, an economy is a system of production, distribution, and consumption, which relies on labor, capital, investment, and institutions. There are no shortcuts in this model: reforms, privatization, tax discipline, productivity — all of it is painful and slow. How closely does the current Ukrainian economy correspond to this classical model? In reality, a completely
Sep 30, 20251 min read
Ukraine’s Public Debt Exceeds 100% of GDP: What This Indicator Really Measures
Is the Debt-to-GDP Ratio an Appropriate Metric for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Wartime? In recent months, one figure has been actively discussed in Ukraine: public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP. For many, this sounds like a psychological threshold — a line beyond which a country is allegedly destined to enter a risk zone. The very fact of crossing this mark is increasingly presented as a self-sufficient argument in debates about Ukraine’s economic future, fiscal policy,
3 hours ago5 min read
“Estimating potential output requires distinguishing temporary shocks from structural changes; failing to do so risks misjudging economic slack and implementing inappropriate macroeconomic policies.”
IMF Staff Note on Potential Output Measurement In global practice, the key question is whether a crisis constitutes a temporary shock or a structural shift, as this distinction determines how potential GDP is interpreted. During crisis periods — from the Great Recession to COVID-19 — the European Commission, the ECB, and the IMF consistently separated temporary drops in actual output from the long-term trajectory of potential output. This is precisely why, in 2009, the Europe
3 hours ago3 min read
Numbers Tell the Truth. Slogans Don’t.
Out of long-standing habit, I read the NBU’s October Inflation Report. It’s a document I have been following for many years, and always with particular attention. If there is anything stable in Ukraine’s economic policy framework, it is the professionalism of the team that prepares these reports. The people at the NBU do complex, often invisible, but extremely important work. And for that reason alone, their documents deserve far closer attention than the loud political state
3 hours ago3 min read
I have never written about politics
I never considered it my field, never wanted to descend to the level of people who, in recent years, have turned the state into an instrument of their personal vendettas. But there are moments when silence becomes complicity. The man who turned the Presidential Office into a private power center, who declared me his enemy, orchestrated criminal cases and a cynical political prosecution, who did everything possible to destroy my reputation and my life — today he is leaving his
3 hours ago4 min read
Silent Devaluation: What’s Happening to the Hryvnia — and Who Really Controls the Exchange Rate
Following reports that the IMF is insisting on a hryvnia devaluation as part of negotiations for a new program worth roughly $8 billion (according to Bloomberg/Reuters estimates), the topic has entered the public domain. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) denies any “IMF-driven devaluation,” citing inflation and social risks. Yet the actual exchange-rate dynamics indicate a gradual adjustment: • On 1 October 2025, the official USD/UAH rate stood at ₴41.1420 (NBU). • On 20 Oct
3 hours ago2 min read
The Parlament of Ukraine has once again raised the corporate income tax on banks — to 50% starting in 2026
Officially, this measure is temporary, until the first quarter of 2027. In practice — it is the third consecutive extension. For the state budget, it is a quick fix: according to estimates, the government will collect an additional UAH 15–23 billion in 2026. In wartime conditions, that looks tempting. The banking sector remains profitable — with over UAH 150 billion in net profit in 2024 — so the political logic is simple: “take it from those who have it.” From an economic st
3 hours ago2 min read
